Economist
Oliver’s insights – 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
11 December
Key points The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed. 2026 is...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Australian home prices up solidly – expect some slowing in 2026
4 December
Key points Cotality data shows national average home prices rose strongly again in November, but with the pace of growth slowing slightly to 1%mom. Near record low vacancy rates is contributing to a pickup in annual rental growth to 5%yoy. The...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Housing affordability at a record low – here’s four key ways to fix it
27 November
Key points With the latest surge in home prices relative to incomes housing affordability is at a new record low. This is adding to a slide in home ownership and rising inequality. The key to sustainably improving housing affordability is to...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Share market wobbles – what are the negatives and positives?
20 November
Key points Rich valuations, AI bubble worries and uncertainty about central bank rate cuts are the main negatives for shares at present and could see recent falls extend further. Against this though, global profit growth remains strong and...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 10-10-2025
16 October
US and European share markets fell sharply on Friday in response to the latest threatened re-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. The 2.7% fall in US shares after Trump threatened additional tariffs on China left it down 2.4% for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Bubble trouble – is AI enthusiasm driving a bubble in shares?
9 October
Key points Rich share market valuations are warning of the risk of a pullback in shares amidst fears of a bubble and it’s possible that enthusiasm for AI has run ahead of itself. But the fundamentals behind this are arguably far stronger than...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 03-10-2025
9 October
Share markets rose strongly over the last week, with optimism for further US rate cuts offsetting the start of another US partial government shutdown. For the week US shares rose 1.1%, Eurozone shares rose 2.7%, Japanese shares rose 0.9% and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Gold at record highs – can it keep going? Implications for investors
18 September
Key points The gold price has surged to record highs. Key drivers have been central banks increasing their gold reserves, rate cuts, a renewed downtrend in the $US and demand for a hedge against public debt worries and geopolitical...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Compound interest and returns are an investor’s best friend
21 August
Key points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend but can be a borrower’s worst nightmare. The higher the return, the earlier and bigger the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it,...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts for the third time – expect a further gradual easing to 2.85%
14 August
Key points The RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?
31 July
Key points The last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Seven key charts on the state of the Australian property market
24 July
Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be. The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – China – the tariff threat, structural challenges & implications for Australia
24 July
Key points Chinese growth is running around 5% and while threatsremain high – with the property downturn and tariffs – policy stimulus is likely to be enough to keep growth okay. However, longer term structural challenges – around...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
17 July
Key points The first half of this year saw good returns, but they were interrupted by a correction into April thanks to US tariffs. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the next few months. Seven key...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights 2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?
10 July
Key points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as...[Read More]